The main outline of the GOP primary was stable this week; the establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie) is 60% to win and the non-establishment (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump) is 40%. But, there was an interesting shift within the non-establishment derby after Trump announced a proposed ban on all non-citizen Muslims entering the United States. Trump has ceded Cruz a lot of his position over these last few days.
Cruz refused to denounce Trump’s comments about Muslims; their positions nearly indistinguishable. This shift of probability of victory is not about a meaningful policy difference between the two candidates; this is not about the sentiment of the GOP voters; this is about likelihood of actually winning. Cruz is simply more likely to win the battle over Trump for the non-establishment vote; he has a sizable war chest and he is practiced politician. Cruz is on a huge upswing in Iowa and it is likely that the non-establishment wing could coalesce around Cruz after a win in Iowa.
